EoAE Forecasts - 1Q19 Rising fiscal revenues provide fiscal flexibility for spending ahead of the April 2019 election; expected to proceed smoothly with polls predicting a Jokowi re-election. Policy ambivalence on foreign investment is not conducive to building a competitive manufacturing sector or for optimal development of Indonesia’s extensive resources. Interest rates...
Samuel Tse, Economist DBS Group Research China’s manufacturing PMI is projected to drop further to 49.0 in Jan 19 alongside the trade tension with the US GDP growth of Taiwan is expected to have decelerated to 2.1% YoY in 4Q18 due to external headwinds Hong Kong’s trade and retail sales performance should have...
Duncan Tan, Strategist DBS Group Research Please see below a rundown of this week’s key data releases and events with macro relevance: We expect Bank Indonesia to keep policy rates unchanged at this week’s decision. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports are expected to rebound to 2.1% YoY in December. Price pressures continue to ebb...
Ekonomi Berkembang Harus Membangun Kembali Penyangga Kebijakan, Meningkatkan Produktivitas untuk Mempertahankan Pertumbuhan WASHINGTON, 8 Januari 2019 - Pertumbuhan ekonomi global diproyeksikan melambat dari yang direvisi turun 3 persen pada 2018 menjadi 2,9 persen pada 2019 di tengah bertambahnya risiko terhadap penurunan proyeksi pertumbuhan, menurut Bank Dunia pada hari Selasa. Aktivitas...
Sinarmas Sekuritas | Market Outlook 2019 | Our view on commodities: In FY18, coal price has diverged between the premium and the lower grade coal. While the premium coal price benchmark (Newcastle 6,322) went up by 1% YTD by the time of this...
Stability Over Growth FY19F JCI target: 6,560 (5.9% upside) We set our JCI target for 2019F at 6,560, derived from 9.3% FY19F EPS growth and 16.1x FY19F PE (5-year mean). Our FY19F JCI target implies a 5.9% upside from closing level...
Philip Wee, FX Strategist Eugene Leow, Rates Strategist DBS Group Research FX: GBP is still at risk to a disorderly Brexit The British pound mounted rallied to above 1.26 from below 1.25 yesterday. By agreeing not to run for the next general election in 2022, Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no confidence...
Danareksa Equity Snapshot - Plantation Sector (OVERWEIGHT) Yudha Gautama Malaysia’s palm oil inventory jumped to a record high of 3.01mn tons in Nov 18 (+17.7% YoY, +10.5% MoM), higher than the street’s estimate of 2.99mn tons, as weak exports prevailed over the decline in output. Going forward, we think CPO prices...
Radhika Rao, Economist DBS Group Research Please see below a rundown of this week’s key data releases and events with macro relevance: China’s data is likely to signal more softness in domestic demand. The ECB is due to end monthly asset purchases, but policy tightening expectations will be pushed back. BSP policy move is...
Oleh Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst FXTM Rupiah melemah karena ketegangan dagang dan kekhawatiran perlambatan pertumbuhan global yang meningkat mengurangi minat terhadap mata uang pasar berkembang. Penghindaran risiko akan menekan mata uang pasar berkembang sepanjang pekan trading ini dan Dolar yang semakin stabil memicu tekanan turun. Prospek jangka pendek Rupiah semakin mengarah...