Danareksa Equity Snapshot – 05 Desember 2018
Ignatius Teguh Prayoga | Danareksa Sekuritas
The latest Nielsen survey reveals that the audience share of SCMA and MNCN was relatively flat on a monthly basis in Nov 18. For SCMA, the total audience share declined slightly, due to slightly lower prime and nonprime time audience share. For MNCN, by comparison, its overall yearly audience share improved, beating the previous year’s level. Our Daily TV program tracking reveals that SCMA and MNCN are still resilient. SCMA is our top pick in the sector. It currently trades at 17.7x P/E or slightly above -1std.
SCMA’s audience share declined slightly. SCMA’s prime time audience share declined slightly on a monthly comparison from 33.7% in Oct 18 to 32.6%.
However, its Nov 18 audience share is still higher compared to Nov 17 (29.1%). Both its prime and non-prime time audience shares were slightly down. SCMA’s audience share was supported by: 1) Cinta Suci, 2) Anak Langit 3) Orang Ketiga, 4) Azab and 5) Cinta Misteri which place in the top ten programs in 28 days of observation.\
MNCN’s audience share is flat. MNCN’s audience share improved from 31.8% in the previous month to 32.8% in Nov 18. On a yearly basis, MNCN’s audience share is flat with higher non-prime time audience share. In November 2018, MNCN was supported by the programs: 1) Cinta yang Hilang 2) Dunia terbalik and 3) Tukang Ojek Pengkolan – which was also the case in the previous month.
SCMA and MNCN’s programs are still leading. From our Daily TV program tracking, SCMA still leads the pack, although Azab seems to be losing traction. SCTV also has a new soap opera called Cinta Misteri, which started to be aired at the end of Oct 18, and which has consistently shown excellent performance in TV rate terms. Similar TV programs by MNCN are still in the top ten which demonstrates its resilience. SCTV’s program Cinta Suci has the highest ranking. In Nov 18, four TV channels were consistently ranked in the top ten, namely: SCTV (4 programs), RCTI (3 programs), ANTV (2 programs) and IVM (1 program), with most of them prime time programs. All in all, the programs of SCMA and MNCN still lead the pack.
Top pick: SCMA. We think that both SCMA and MNCN look attractive at their current share prices, with SCMA as our top pick given: 1) its high audience
share, 2) better 3Q18 results on a yearly basis, and 3) its healthy balance sheet with net cash. In our view, SCMA currently trades at an attractive PE valuation of 17.7x or slightly above -1std. The risks to our call include: 1) external pressure on its clients’ business, 2) stiffer competition, 3) higher content costs, and 4) viewers switching to digitalized entertainment.