Daily Commentary (30-Nov): Rupiah currency and INDOGB have continued to gain positively by end of November, but the stock market has been posting losses. JCI fell 0.8% to 6,056.1 (+3.9% mtd or -4.7% ytd), as foreign investors reported net outflow of Rp1.4tn (inflow of Rp9tn mtd but still outflow of Rp45.6tn ytd). However, rupiah still appreciated by 0.6% to Rp14,302/USD (appreciated 5.9% mtd or depreciated 5.4% ytd) by end of November.
All the benchmark bond series’ yields have fallen with the 5yr FR63 traded at 92 (+0.1%), yielding 7.78% (-1.7 bps); the 10yr FR64 at 88.8 (+0.1%), yielding 7.82% (-1.4 bps); the 15yr FR65 at 87.9 (+0.2%), yielding 8.21% (-2 bps); and the 20yr FR75 at 93.6 (+0.2%), yielding 8.17% (-1.8 bps). Based on PLTE data on Friday, foreign has kept posting net inflow of Rp1.6tn – all are from non-benchmark series; specific for benchmark series, foreign reported net sell by Rp200.8bn. In the latest update of bond ownership data on DMO website based on settlement date as of 29-Nov (reflecting trading on 27-Nov), total foreign ownership was Rp898.6tn (inflow of Rp34.3tn mtd or +Rp62.5tn ytd) or 37.8% of total outstanding.
Thus over the week, JCI was up 0.8%, 10yr government bond yield fell 4.8 bps (the fifth consecutive weekly gain for INDOGB), and rupiah appreciated 1.6%.
November inflation data will be released today. Bank Indonesia expects inflation of 0.18% mom or 3.14% yoy (vs. 3.16% in Oct 2018). If it happens, then inflation this year is projected only at 3.2% – still slightly lower than mid BI’s inflation range target of 2.5-4.5%.
From the global market, the 10yr US Treasury yield closed below 3% and S&P 500 index rose 0.82% – or jumped 4.8% on weekly basis as the best weekly gain in seven years. Meanwhile, the DXY index rose 0.4% to 97.2. Sentiment for risky asset might be positive today, as US-China trade-postponement offers some relief. (Source: Mandiri Sekuritas)